The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively.[2] The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses were held from February to August 2020. This nominating process is an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their parties' nominees for president and vice president. Considered a referendum on the Trump presidency, the major two-party candidates are Republican incumbent President Donald Trump and Democrat former Vice President Joe Biden.
Central issues of the election include the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has left over 220,000 Americans dead; protests in reaction to the killing of George Floyd and other African Americans; the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, and the future of the Affordable Care Act, with Biden arguing for protecting and expanding the scope of the legislation, and Trump pushing for repealing or narrowing many of its provisions.[3]
Trump secured the Republican nomination without any serious opposition alongside incumbent vice president Pence. Former vice president Joe Biden secured the Democratic nomination over his closest rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, in a competitive primary that featured the largest field of presidential candidates for any political party in the modern era of American politics. On August 11, 2020, Biden announced that his running mate would be Senator Kamala Harris, making her the first African-American, the first Indian-American, the first Asian-American, and the third female vice presidential nominee on a major party ticket (after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008). Jo Jorgensen secured the Libertarian nomination with Spike Cohen as her running mate, and Howie Hawkins secured the Green nomination with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate.
The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Trump or Biden will be the oldest candidate to be elected president. If elected, Biden would become the oldest person to serve as president at 78 years old, and 82 years old if he serves a full first term, and the first candidate to defeat an incumbent president in 28 years since Republican George H. W. Bush’s defeat by Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992. If reelected, Trump would become the oldest president ever, also 78, if he serves a full second term, (surpassing Ronald Reagan who was 77 years old at the end of his second term). This is the first presidential election in which both major candidates are over 70.
Procedure
Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States. Each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[4] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The election will occur simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.
On August 26, 2019, the Maine Legislature passed a bill adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) both for presidential primaries and for the general election.[5][6] On September 6, 2019, Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but put Maine on track to be the first state to use RCV for a presidential general election. The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of electors, as Maine and Nebraska have used in recent elections.[7] However, in June the Maine Republican Party filed signatures for a veto referendum to ask voters if they want the law repealed and preclude the use of RCV for the 2020 election. Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, rejected a number of signatures that had not been collected by a registered voter as required under the Maine Constitution, resulting in there being insufficient signatures for the veto referendum to qualify for the ballot. A challenge to Dunlap's decision in Maine Superior Court was successful for the Maine Republican Party, but the case was appealed to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court.[8][9] On September 8, the Court issued a stay of the Superior Court ruling pending appeal on the merits, causing confusion and uncertainty regarding the 2020 election.[10] Nevertheless, ballots began being printed later that day without the veto referendum and including RCV for the presidential election,[11][12] and the Court ruled in favor of the Secretary of State on September 22, allowing RCV to be used.[13] An emergency appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court claiming a First Amendment violation was denied by Justice Stephen Breyer (the circuit justice for the First Circuit) on October 6.[14] Implementation of RCV could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day,[15] and will also complicate interpretation of the national popular vote.[16]
Primaries
In election cycles with incumbent presidents running for re-election, the race for the party nomination is usually pro-forma, with token opposition instead of any serious challengers and with their party rules being fixed in their favor.[23][24] The 2020 election was no exception; with Donald Trump formally seeking a second term,[25][26] the official Republican apparatus, both state and national, coordinated with his campaign to implement changes to make it difficult for any primary opponent to mount a serious challenge.[27][28] On January 25, 2019, the Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump.[29]
Several Republican state committees scrapped their respective primaries or caucuses,[30] citing the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[31][32] After cancelling their races, some of those states, such as Hawaii and New York, immediately pledged their delegates to Trump.[33][34] In contrast, other states, such as Kansas and Nevada, later formally held a convention or meeting to officially award their delegates to him.[35][36]
The Trump campaign also urged Republican state committees that used proportional methods to award delegates in 2016 (where a state's delegates are divided proportionally among the candidates based on the vote percentage) to switch to a "winner-takes-all" (where the winning candidate in a state gets all its delegates) or "winner-takes-most" (where the winning candidate only wins all of the state's delegates if he exceeds a predetermined amount, otherwise they are divided proportionally) for 2020.[24][37]
Nevertheless, reports arose beginning in August 2017 that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against the president, particularly from the party's moderate or establishment wings. Then-Arizona senator John McCain said, "Republicans see weakness in this president."[38][39] Maine senator Susan Collins, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump would be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating, "It's too difficult to say."[40][41] Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump was "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he was governing.[42] However, longtime political strategist Roger Stone predicted in May 2018 that Trump might not seek a second term were he to succeed in keeping all his campaign promises and "mak[ing] America great again".[43]
Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019.[44] Weld, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee for vice president in 2016, was considered a long shot because of Trump's popularity within his own party and Weld's positions on issues such as abortion, gun control and same-sex marriage that conflicted with conservative positions on those issues.[45] In addition, businessman Rocky De La Fuente also entered the race but was not widely recognized as a major candidate.[46][47]
Former Illinois representative Joe Walsh launched a primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying, "I'm going to do whatever I can. I don't want [Trump] to win. The country cannot afford to have him win. If I'm not successful, I'm not voting for him."[48] Walsh ended his presidential bid on February 7, 2020, after drawing around 1% support in the Iowa caucuses. Walsh declared that "nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary" because the Republican Party was now "a cult" of Trump. According to Walsh, Trump supporters had become "followers" who think that Trump "can do no wrong", after absorbing misinformation from conservative media. He stated, "They don't know what the truth is and—more importantly—they don't care."[49] On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he would be another Republican primary challenger to Trump.[50] He dropped out of the race 65 days later on November 12, 2019, after failing to gain support in Republican circles.[51]
Donald Trump's re-election campaign has essentially been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[52] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 p.m., he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[53] During the primary season, Trump ran an active campaign, even holding rallies in the February primary states, including South Carolina and Nevada where Republican primaries were canceled.[54][55] Trump won every race and, having won enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, became the presumptive nominee on March 17, 2020.[56] Weld suspended his campaign the next day.[57]
Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on politics, and White House COVID-19 outbreak
Several events related to the 2020 presidential election have been altered or postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.[192][193] On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies.[194] The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C.[195] Several states also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, and Maryland.[196] As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies over coronavirus concerns. Political analysts have stated that the moratorium on traditional campaigning coupled with the effects of the pandemic on the nation could have unpredictable effects on the voting populace and possibly, how the election will be conducted.[197][198][199]
Some presidential primary elections were severely disrupted by COVID-19-related issues, including long lines at polling places, greatly increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues.[200] The number of polling places was often greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic. Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but many voters complained that they never received the absentee ballots they had requested.[201]
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act included money for states to increase mail-in voting. Trump and his campaign have strongly opposed mail-in-voting, claiming that it would cause widespread voter fraud, a belief which has been debunked by a number of media organizations.[202][203] Government response to the impact of the pandemic from the Trump administration, coupled to the differing positions taken by congressional Democrats and Republicans regarding economic stimulus remains a major campaign issue for both parties.[204][205]
Due to the coronavirus pandemic spread in the United States, and the subsequent effects such as the stay-at-home order and social distancing guidelines by local governments, all presidential candidates are unable to hold campaign rallies and public gatherings. As a result, at the daily White House coronavirus briefing in April, President Trump played a campaign-style video talking about his early response to the coronavirus. According to the president, the mainstream media was initially responsible for "downplaying the effects of the virus".[206]
On April 6, the Supreme Court and Republicans in the State Legislature of Wisconsin rebuffed Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers's request to move the election in Wisconsin to June. As a result, the election (among them was a presidential primary) went ahead as planned.[207] At least seven new cases of the coronavirus infection were traced to this election. Voting-rights advocates have expressed fear of similar chaos on a nationwide scale in November, recommending states to move to expand vote-by-mail options.[208]
On June 20, 2020, despite continuing concerns over COVID-19,[209] the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that Trump's campaign could hold a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) Center. Originally scheduled for June 19, the Trump campaign changed the date of this gathering due to the Juneteenth holiday. [210] Attendance at the rally was far lower than expected, being described as a "flop", with it leading to a significant worsening of relations between Trump and his campaign manager Brad Parscale.[211] 7.7 million people watched the event on Fox News, a Saturday audience record for that channel.[212] Three weeks after the rally, the Oklahoma State Department of Health recorded record numbers of cases of the coronavirus,[213] and former Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain died of the virus, although it was not confirmed that he caught the disease due to his attendance at the rally.[214]
On October 2, 2020, Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 following a positive test from his senior adviser Hope Hicks. Both the president and first lady immediately entered quarantine, which prevented Trump from further campaigning, notably at campaign rallies.[215][216][217] Later that day, the President was admitted to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center with a low grade fever, where he was reported to have received an experimental antibody treatment.[218][219] Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said, "Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of his physician and medical experts, the president will be working from the presidential offices at Walter Reed for the next few days."[220] Trump's diagnosis came only two days after he had shared the stage with Joe Biden at the first presidential debate. This led to the concern that Biden may have contracted the virus from Trump; however, Biden tested negative.[221][222]
Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19 was widely seen as having a negative effect on his campaign and has shifted the attention of the public back onto COVID-19, an issue which is generally seen as a liability for Trump, due to his response to the COVID-19 pandemic suffering from low approval ratings.[223][224] Being in quarantine also meant that Trump was unable to attend rallies, which were a major part of his campaign. As a result of Trump contracting COVID-19, Biden continued campaigning but temporarily ceased running attack ads against him.[225][226]
Voting by mail
See also: Postal voting in the United States § Expansion in 2020 election, and 2020 United States Postal Service crisis
Chart of July 2020 opinion survey on likelihood of voting by mail in November election.[256]
Voting by mail has become an increasingly common practice in the United States, with 25% of voters nationwide mailing their ballots in 2016 and 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has been predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places.[257] For the 2020 election, a state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans are eligible to vote by mail in 2020, a record number. The analysis predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020—more than double the number in 2016.[258] The Postal Service sent a letter to multiple states in July 2020, warning that the service would not be able to meet the state's deadlines for requesting and casting last-minute absentee ballots.[259] In addition to the anticipated high volume of mailed ballots, the prediction was due in part to numerous measures taken by the Louis DeJoy, the newly installed Postmaster General of the United States, including banning overtime and extra trips to deliver mail,[260] which caused delays in delivering mail,[261] and dismantling and removing hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines from postal centers.[262] On August 18, after the House of Representatives had been recalled from its August break to vote on a bill reversing the changes, DeJoy announced that he would roll back all the changes until after the November election. He said he would reinstate overtime hours, roll back service reductions, and halt the removal of mail-sorting machines and collection boxes.[263]
The House of Representatives voted an emergency grant of $25 billion to the post office to facilitate the predicted flood of mail ballots.[264] However, President Trump has repeatedly denounced mail voting, even though he himself votes by mail in Florida, a form of absentee voting. He defends this practice by differentiating between mail voting and absentee voting, defending the latter while condemning the former.[265] In August 2020, President Trump conceded that the post office would need additional funds to handle the additional mail-in voting, but said he would block any additional funding for the post office to prevent any increase in balloting by mail.[266]
President Trump has been very critical of voting by mail, often making allegations of massive voter fraud. In August 2020, a federal judge ordered Trump's campaign and the Republican Party to produce evidence of such fraud in Pennsylvania.[267] In September 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, who was appointed by Trump, testified under oath that the FBI has "not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it's by mail or otherwise".[268] In October 2020, when nearly 50,000 voters in Franklin County, Ohio received incorrect absentee ballots in the mail, Trump claimed that “a rigged election” was happening in the state, a claim criticised by media outlets.[269]
Federal Election Commission issues
The Federal Election Commission, which was created in 1974 to enforce campaign finance laws in federal elections, has not functioned since July 2020 due to vacancies in membership. In the absence of a quorum, the commission cannot vote on complaints or give guidance through advisory opinions.[270] As of May 19, 2020, there were 350 outstanding matters on the agency's enforcement docket and 227 items waiting for action.[271] As of September 1, 2020, President Trump has not nominated any person to fill the vacant positions, which are required to be submitted for Senate confirmation.
On July 28, The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint alleging the Trump campaign was laundering millions of dollars.[272]
Supreme Court vacancy
Further information: Amy Coney Barrett Supreme Court nomination
On September 18, 2020, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately stated that the precedent he set regarding Merrick Garland was inoperative and that a replacement would be voted on as soon as possible, setting the stage for a confirmation battle and an unexpected intrusion into the campaign.[273] The death of Justice Ginsburg resulted in large increases in momentum for both the Democrats and Republicans.[274][275]
The president,[276] vice president,[277] and several Republican members of Congress stated that a full Supreme Court bench was needed to decide the upcoming election
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